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The worst nightmare

 

 

Party like it’s 1922, as Prince said.

 

After all the brouhaha of being on the verge of a united Ireland, what do we have?

 

Potentially the most right wing pro Unionist government since Lord Birkenhead was shooting grouse and boasting about putting the Zulus and miners and the Paddies back into their box.

 

Electoral facts are that the combined unionist v nationalist votes are more or less the same as they have ever been;: Between them, Sinn Féin and the SDLP took 41.1% and the unionist parties – and yes the Alliance Party are unionists – took 54.2%.

 

So what possesses anyone to believe that a border poll would be in favour of a united Ireland? In 1998 the combined Sinn Féin/SDLP vote was 38.7%. By such an exponential rate of progress, nationalist parties will have a majority in 2107. And that is assuming Catholics remain virile and fertile and that all the babies vote the right way.

 

The fact is that this is a beaten flush. Much as the shinners may celebrate the defeat of Corbyn, yes he lost,  the fact is that this is worst electoral outcome for Irish nationalism in a century.

 

Perhaps the proxy vote operation needs to be finessed.

 

In the meantime, the DUP are in their grannies, as Dubs say. It is the perfect storm for them. They don’t even need to go back into Stormont although the logistics of maintaining a party and its finances and workers probably means that they will.

 

For the shinners, do they bite the pillow again and return to Lord Carson, or do they tough it out and refuse to engage?

 

My money is on the pillow biting.

 

 

 

 

 

On 09-06-2017 4 1050

4 thoughts on “The worst nightmare

  1. The DUP increased its vote on assembly 2017 by 66,903

    the uup decreased by 20,034

    The tuv decreased by 17,241

    So presuming the dup picked up the fall in the other unionist parties they also picked up another 29,628 votes.

    The shinners increased there vote on assembly 2017 by 14,670
    the sdlp decreased there vote 539 votes.
    presuming the shinners picked up all the fall of the other nationalist party that means they still picked up an extra 14,131 votes

    Giving unionists a greater than 2 .1 gap in the proxy vote race. yes much work needed.

    busted flush fair enough but ‘it’ never ends. probably right about the shinners biting the pillow but that won’t stop ‘it’ manifesting in some other form in this changing world and not winning that either.

  2. Interesting stats. Proves that when turnout increases that a lot of lazy unionists come out! Six counties politics is becoming a two party relationship. Which is not necessarily bad, but it is unhealthy if they are locked into some perpetual coalition. DUP have just landed huge prize so possible that they won’t even bother with Stormont now. On other hand, they have a lot of MLAs and staff, same as SF, so that might provide practical grounds for both. SF will be hoping they can up the ante by entering coalition in 26 next. Interesting times. Which the Chinese say to beware of!

  3. agreed on mandatory coalition not being healthy. Shinners have it as a stated objective to go back into government in the north. Other than the titles and the cars and the pensions i don’t get why.

    Very good position for the dup to be in yes, agreement between them and may seems to have happened very quickly. Love to see the wish list.

    Would the dup kill the mandatory part of government in the north, in the early days they were offended by it, not sure now. The uup and the sdlp didn’t take their seats on the last executive seems to be a desire in the north for normal Parliament.

    I don’t see what leverage the 26 county state has over what happens in the north. They line up beside the british state but don’t do anything. that could be put down to weak character or maybe they just have no leverage. What would SF do in that poition bar the titles, cars and pensions.

  4. DUP and SF are big parties with a lot of MLAs and staff so that is incentive to get some agreement. As also is getting back in charge of the disbursement of funding. DUP might play hardball, however, and try and further restrict the partionist structure in north, although historically they have been devolutionists. SF have no choice but to either go back to Stormont as junior partners and accept that there is not a hope in hell of a border poll, or stay out and hope that some electoral miracles pull their nuts out of the fire.

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